Four future scenarios for how the industry will look by 2023 were presented to delegates at the Travel Convention this morning.

Scenario one: boom and burst
This future envisages a booming UK economy and high disposable incomes fuelling a growth in travel worldwide.

People would travel farther, faster and more frequently, said James Goodman, head of futures at sustainable development charity Forum for the Future.

Goodman said this scenario could see developments such as a theme park at Mount Everest base camp, timed tickets for entry into extremely busy cities such as Paris, pop-up luxury hotels, fast growth in remote destinations such as Papua New Guinea, and near-space voyages.

He added: “There is already evidence of this happening with Virgin Galactic and huge investment in making travel more efficent.”

Scenario two: divided disquiet
Goodman described this as a toxic combination of devastating climate change, violent wars over scarce resources and social unrest leading to an unstable and fearful world.

This future would result in overseas travel being an unattractive proposition with safe destinations prospering.

In practical terms Goodman said major companies would rely more on technology and would impose a one trip a year policy for executives; rising sea levels could force the government of the Maldives to relocate its population to India; and there could be a boom in "doomsday tourism", with tourists travelling to see disappearing attractions and wildlife close to extinction.

Scenario three: price and privilege
This scenario would be dominated by dramatically high oil prices making travel a luxury for the elite.

Dwindling supplies and rising demand from boom economies such as Asia would push prices up in a series of unpredictable spikes.

Aviation shrinks dramatically and the travel industry suffers mass redundancies. Cost becomes the major purchase factor, absolutely-no-frills airlines appear with standing room only where people are charged by weight and rail travel booms.

Scenario four: carbon clampdown
The final forecast sees each individual given a carbon allowance so as to allocate the right to pollute equally.

This scenario would see UK beaches become more fashionable and popular, and consumers' motives for going away, for example aid work, becoming more important than the destination.

Goodman stressed that the four scenarios had been put together after detailed discussions with the industry but said he could not predict which if any of the futures would come true.

After the presentation Abta chief executive Mark Tanzer encouraged delegates to get involved in Tourism 2023 and said Abta and the Travel Foundation would act as the hub in the middle of industry efforts, measuring progress and offering advice.

• Travel giants create blueprint for travel's future (24 Jul 2009)
• Virgin Galactic targets 50,000 flyers (9 Jun 2009)
• Francesca Ecsey questions the Committee on Climate Change's statements (14 Sep 2009)